Matheus Severino vs Mohammed Walid
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Severino86%
Mohammed Walid 14%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Severino a 86% favorite over Mohammed Walid in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Matheus Severino holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1524, a 130-point edge.
Matheus Severino enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mohammed Walid enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matheus Severino finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Walid 88%.
Matheus Severino and Mohammed Walid share 1 common opponent: Shawn Marcos da Silva.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record8-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
-Reach-
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1702 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamWarhorse Fight Clan
What's at stake
Matheus Severino is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mohammed Walid carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1664
If they lose-22→ 1632
If they win+22→ 1546
If they lose-10→ 1514
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matheus SeverinoMohammed Walid
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (1)
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2026
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2022