Mats Nilsson vs Victor Valenzuela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-1Record14-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Rumble SportsTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mats NilssonVictor Valenzuela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Victor Valenzuela66%
Mats Nilsson 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Victor Valenzuela a 66% favorite over Mats Nilsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.
Mats Nilsson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Victor Valenzuela enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mats Nilsson finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Victor Valenzuela 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.