Matt Arroyo vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Matt Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Matt Arroyo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1567
If they lose-19→ 1519
If they win+10→ 1617
If they lose-14→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1645 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt ArroyoMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Brown74%
Matt Arroyo 26%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Brown a 74% favorite over Matt Arroyo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Matt Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1607 to 1538, a 69-point edge.
Matt Arroyo finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.