Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record10-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
75"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Immortal Fight TeamTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Miguel Baeza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1637
If they lose-11→ 1613
If they win+15→ 1666
If they lose-17→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownMiguel Baeza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Miguel Baeza66%
Matt Brown 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Miguel Baeza a 66% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Miguel Baeza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1624, a 27-point edge.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Miguel Baeza 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.