Matt Brown vs Ricardo Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record13-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
75"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Immortal Fight TeamTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Matt Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ricardo Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1635
If they lose-13→ 1611
If they win+17→ 1620
If they lose-15→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownRicardo Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Brown54%
Ricardo Almeida 46%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Brown a 54% favorite over Ricardo Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Matt Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1624 to 1603, a 21-point edge.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Almeida 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.