Matt Brown vs Ryan Thomas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Immortal Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Ryan Thomas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1620
If they lose-11→ 1596
If they win+11→ 1640
If they lose-13→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownRyan Thomas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Thomas58%
Matt Brown 42%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Thomas a 58% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ryan Thomas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1607, a 22-point edge.
Ryan Thomas enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Thomas 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.