Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record21-16-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
75"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Immortal Fight TeamTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Matt Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Seth Baczynski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1634
If they lose-14→ 1610
If they win+14→ 1568
If they lose-10→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownSeth Baczynski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Brown70%
Seth Baczynski 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Brown a 70% favorite over Seth Baczynski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Matt Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1624 to 1554, a 70-point edge.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Seth Baczynski 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.