Matt Brown vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Immortal Fight TeamTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Stephen Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1639
If they lose-9→ 1615
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-20→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephen Thompson72%
Matt Brown 28%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Thompson a 72% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Stephen Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1624, a 78-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.