Matt Brown vs T.J. Schaefer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record4-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
75"Reach-
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1619
If they lose-12→ 1595
If they win+24→ 1630
If they lose-24→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownT.J. Schaefer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Brown55%
T.J. Schaefer 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Brown a 55% favorite over T.J. Schaefer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1606), separated by just 1 points.
T.J. Schaefer enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, T.J. Schaefer 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.