Matt Brown vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
75"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Tim Means is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1620
If they lose-11→ 1596
If they win+11→ 1656
If they lose-13→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Means52%
Matt Brown 48%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Means a 52% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Tim Means holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1607, a 38-point edge.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Matt Brown and Tim Means share 1 common opponent: Court McGee.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.