Matt Frevola vs Terrance McKinney
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-1Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie Tampa SouthTeamWarrior Camp
What's at stake
Terrance McKinney is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Frevola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1654
If they lose-15→ 1622
If they win+11→ 1672
If they lose-13→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt FrevolaTerrance McKinney
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Terrance McKinney87%
Matt Frevola 13%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 87% favorite over Matt Frevola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Terrance McKinney holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1637, a 24-point edge.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Frevola finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.
Matt Frevola and Terrance McKinney share 1 common opponent: Kyle Nelson.
Terrance McKinney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.