Matt Schnell vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record14-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"Reach 68"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fortis MMATeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Steve Erceg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1621
If they lose-9→ 1597
If they win+12→ 1717
If they lose-20→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt SchnellSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Erceg78%
Matt Schnell 22%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Erceg a 78% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Steve Erceg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1606, a 99-point edge.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Steve Erceg enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matt Schnell finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Matt Schnell and Steve Erceg share 1 common opponent: Alessandro Costa.
Matt Schnell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.