Matt Schnell vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record14-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"Reach 68"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fortis MMATeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Steve Erceg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-9→ 1604
If they win+13→ 1701
If they lose-19→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt SchnellSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Erceg63%
Matt Schnell 37%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Erceg a 63% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Steve Erceg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1688 to 1613, a 75-point edge.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Schnell finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Matt Schnell and Steve Erceg share 2 common opponents: Alessandro Costa and Alexandre Pantoja.
Matt Schnell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.