Matthew O'Rourke vs Trevor Makengo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record2-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
-Height6'3"
-Reach-
205 lbsWeight239 lbs
Team Ryano Waterford· 1584 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamC-MAC· 1578 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Trevor Makengo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1499
If they lose-20→ 1451
If they win+20→ 1551
If they lose-28→ 1503
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matthew O'RourkeTrevor Makengo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trevor Makengo66%
Matthew O'Rourke 34%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Trevor Makengo a 66% favorite over Matthew O'Rourke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Trevor Makengo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1531 to 1471, a 60-point edge.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.