Matthew Semelsberger vs Uros Medic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-8-0Record13-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'1"
75"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Clinch AcademyTeamKings MMA
What's at stake
Uros Medic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Matthew Semelsberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1628
If they lose-12→ 1596
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-20→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matthew SemelsbergerUros Medic
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Uros Medic79%
Matthew Semelsberger 21%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Uros Medic a 79% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Uros Medic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1608, a 100-point edge.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Uros Medic enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Matthew Semelsberger finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Uros Medic 100%.
Matthew Semelsberger carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.