Max Holloway vs Usman Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-9-0Record22-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
69"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie TechnicsTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Usman Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Max Holloway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1843
If they lose-11→ 1819
If they win+15→ 1862
If they lose-17→ 1830
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1791 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Max HollowayUsman Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Usman Nurmagomedov64%
Max Holloway 36%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Usman Nurmagomedov a 64% favorite over Max Holloway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Usman Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1847 to 1830, a 17-point edge.
Usman Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Max Holloway finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Usman Nurmagomedov 73%.
Usman Nurmagomedov carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.