Mayton Perea vs Michael Pagani
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Michael Pagani61%
Mayton Perea 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Pagani a 61% favorite over Mayton Perea in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mayton Perea's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1621 vs 1621), separated by just 0 points.
Mayton Perea enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mayton Perea finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Michael Pagani 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-3-0Record8-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'9"
75"Reach-
170 lbsWeight164 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1637
If they lose-16→ 1605
If they win+16→ 1637
If they lose-16→ 1605
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mayton PereaMichael Pagani