Mehdi Saadi vs Vicente Vargas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record24-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
-Reach-
140 lbsWeight147 lbs
TeamTeam Ludus· 1601 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
If they win+12→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mehdi SaadiVicente Vargas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Vargas57%
Mehdi Saadi 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Vargas a 57% favorite over Mehdi Saadi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mehdi Saadi's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1636), separated by just 1 points.
Mehdi Saadi enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Vicente Vargas enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mehdi Saadi finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Vargas 30%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.