Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record16-4-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'4"
64"Reach63"
116 lbsWeight116 lbs
What's at stake
Tina Black is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Melissa Amaya carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1661
If they lose-21→ 1613
If they win+14→ 1693
If they lose-18→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Melissa AmayaTina Black
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tina Black64%
Melissa Amaya 36%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Tina Black a 64% favorite over Melissa Amaya in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Tina Black holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1679 to 1634, a 45-point edge.
Tina Black enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Melissa Amaya finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tina Black 44%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.