UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS

Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black

EventUFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS
DateSep 26, 2026
StatusScheduled
VenueMeta APEX
BroadcastPARAMOUNT+
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET)
Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT)
Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe
Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 8:00 AM

Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black is a scheduled Women's Strawweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS . Melissa Amaya enters with a 8-0-0 record and Tina Black enters with a 15-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black quick answers

When is Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black?

Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black is listed for UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS on Sep 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST.

What event is Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black on?

Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black is listed on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS .

What are the records for Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black?

Melissa Amaya enters with a 8-0-0 record and Tina Black enters with a 15-4-0 record.

What division is Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black?

Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black is listed as a Women's Strawweight fight.

Melissa AmayaMamba |8-0-0Melissa Amaya vs Tina BlackTina BlackTina Black / Valesca Machado |15-4-0
usMelissa AmayaMamba8-0-0Melissa Amayaus

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
8-0-0Record15-4-0
31Age30
5'4"Height5'4"
64"Reach63"
116 lbsWeight116 lbs
Women's StrawweightWeight ClassWomen's Strawweight
brTina BlackTina Black / Valesca Machado15-4-0brTina Black
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Melissa Amaya owns a 2-point Elo edge (good). Tina Black shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Melissa Amaya and Tina Black across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Melissa AmayaTina Black
16001650202320242025

Recent form

Melissa AmayaW W W W W · +86 Elo last 5
WWWWW
Tina BlackW W W L W · +16 Elo last 5
WWWLW

Elo edge

Melissa Amaya1662+17 last move
Tina Black1660+9 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
52%Melissa Amaya48%Tina Black
Model favoriteMelissa Amaya
Elo baseline50% for Melissa Amaya
Matchup adjustment+2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Melissa Amaya leads the full model at 52%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1662 · 1660Melissa Amaya leads by 2 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1494 · 1527Tina Black faced the stronger recent schedule (8 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth8 · 17 fightsTina Black has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesMelissa Amaya 1 · 3 Tina BlackStrongest available gap: Sig. strikes landed per min toward Tina Black.

Stat advantages

Melissa AmayavsTina Black
Sig. strikes landed per min
0vs2.40
Sig. strike accuracy
0%vs33%
Sig. strikes absorbed per min
0vs2.87
Sig. strike defense
0%vs64%

Finishing profile

Melissa AmayaKO/TKO leads 38% of wins
Tina Blackdecision leads 60% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Melissa AmayaTina Black
0Sig. strikes landed per min2.40
UFC strawweight average : 4.00
0Sig. strike accuracy33
UFC strawweight average : 45%
0Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.87
UFC strawweight average : 4.06
0Sig. strike defense64
UFC strawweight average : 54%
0Takedown average0
UFC strawweight average : 1.38
0Takedown accuracy0
UFC strawweight average : 33%
0Takedown defense77
UFC strawweight average : 60%
0Submission average0
UFC strawweight average : 0.42
3Wins by knockout5
2Wins by submission1
3Wins by decision9
0Losses by knockout0
0Losses by submission0
0Losses by decision4

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