Combat Edge Intelligence

Melissa Gatto vs Tracy Cortez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-3-2Record12-4-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
69"Reach65"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
MSPTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

Tracy Cortez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Melissa Gatto carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Melissa GattoNow 1571
If they win+31→ 1602
If they lose-17→ 1554
Tracy CortezNow 1669
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-20→ 1649

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1588 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.86
50%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.01
54%
Strike defense
57%
1.47
Takedown avg.
2.15
29%
Takedown accuracy
47%
64%
Takedown defense
59%
0.49
Submission avg.
0.32

Trajectory

Melissa GattoTracy Cortez
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
4 (44%)
Submission
1 (8%)
2 (22%)
Decision
10 (83%)

Combat Edge model read

Tracy Cortez63%
Melissa Gatto 37%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Tracy Cortez a 63% favorite over Melissa Gatto in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Tracy Cortez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1571, a 98-point edge.

Tracy Cortez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Melissa Gatto finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Tracy Cortez 17%.

Melissa Gatto carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.