Combat Edge Intelligence

Melquizael Costa vs Thiago Moisés

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-8-0Record19-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao EmilioTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Melquizael CostaNow 1682
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Thiago MoisésNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.38
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
50%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.08
55%
Strike defense
53%
2
Takedown avg.
1.31
41%
Takedown accuracy
36%
59%
Takedown defense
53%
1.09
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Melquizael CostaThiago Moisés
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (35%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
8 (31%)
Submission
8 (42%)
9 (35%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Melquizael Costa and Thiago Moisés within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1683), separated by just 1 points.

Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Melquizael Costa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.