Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Tucker Lutz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Glendale Fighting ClubTeamGround Control
What's at stake
Tucker Lutz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Melsik Baghdasaryan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1641
If they lose-15→ 1609
If they win+15→ 1660
If they lose-17→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melsik BaghdasaryanTucker Lutz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melsik Baghdasaryan62%
Tucker Lutz 38%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Melsik Baghdasaryan a 62% favorite over Tucker Lutz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tucker Lutz's way (47%).
Tucker Lutz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1624, a 21-point edge.
Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Melsik Baghdasaryan finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tucker Lutz 67%.
Tucker Lutz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.