Melvin Guillard vs Tom Aaron
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-22-2Record5-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachUnknown
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamFinney's MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1533
If they lose-12→ 1509
If they win+25→ 1536
If they lose-23→ 1488
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melvin GuillardTom Aaron
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aaron52%
Melvin Guillard 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aaron a 52% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Melvin Guillard's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1511), separated by just 10 points.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aaron 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.