Combat Edge Intelligence

Michael Chandler vs Nurullo Aliev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-11-0Record12-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
71"Reach72"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamKaizen MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Michael ChandlerNow 1732
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720
Nurullo AlievNow 1733
If they win+16→ 1749
If they lose-16→ 1717

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1772 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.04
Sig. strikes / min
2.29
50%
Strike accuracy
44%
4.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.59
43%
Strike defense
55%
1.96
Takedown avg.
3.48
41%
Takedown accuracy
10%
62%
Takedown defense
80%
0.56
Submission avg.
0.46

Trajectory

Michael ChandlerNurullo Aliev
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

11 (48%)
KO/TKO
2 (17%)
7 (30%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (22%)
Decision
10 (83%)

Combat Edge model read

Nurullo Aliev61%
Michael Chandler 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nurullo Aliev a 61% favorite over Michael Chandler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1732 vs 1733), separated by just 1 points.

Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Nurullo Aliev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Michael Chandler finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Nurullo Aliev 17%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.