Michael Chiesa vs Mitch Clarke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record11-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
75"Reach73,0"
170 lbsWeight154 lbs
SikjitsuTeamTBD
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Mitch Clarke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1765
If they lose-17→ 1741
If they win+23→ 1622
If they lose-9→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa84%
Mitch Clarke 16%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 84% favorite over Mitch Clarke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1599, a 159-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael Chiesa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Clarke 73%.
Michael Chiesa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.