Combat Edge Intelligence

Michael Page vs Sam Patterson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-3-0Record14-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
London ShootfightersTeamTeam Crossface

What's at stake

Michael Page is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Sam Patterson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michael PageNow 1827
If they win+9→ 1836
If they lose-15→ 1812
Sam PattersonNow 1728
If they win+20→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1716

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.39
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
60%
Strike accuracy
38%
1.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
57%
Strike defense
50%
0.23
Takedown avg.
0.82
17%
Takedown accuracy
0%
67%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
1.64

Trajectory

Michael PageSam Patterson
17001750180020252026

Win method breakdown

13 (52%)
KO/TKO
6 (43%)
3 (12%)
Submission
7 (50%)
9 (36%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Page63%
Sam Patterson 37%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Page a 63% favorite over Sam Patterson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Michael Page holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1827 to 1728, a 99-point edge.

Michael Page enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Michael Page finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.