Combat Edge Intelligence

Michel Prazeres vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-6-0Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height6'1"
TBDReach77"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Coalizao Fight TeamTeamKazakhstan Top Team

What's at stake

Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Michel Prazeres carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michel PrazeresNow 1758
If they win+15→ 1773
If they lose-9→ 1749
Shavkat RakhmonovNow 1848
If they win+12→ 1860
If they lose-20→ 1828

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1688 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.38
Sig. strikes / min
3.25
47%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
58%
Strike defense
51%
3.94
Takedown avg.
1.40
36%
Takedown accuracy
26%
48%
Takedown defense
86%
0.61
Submission avg.
1.20

Trajectory

Michel PrazeresShavkat Rakhmonov
175018001850202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (4%)
KO/TKO
8 (42%)
11 (41%)
Submission
10 (53%)
15 (56%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Shavkat Rakhmonov84%
Michel Prazeres 16%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Shavkat Rakhmonov a 84% favorite over Michel Prazeres in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1758, a 90-point edge.

Michel Prazeres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Michel Prazeres finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.