Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Paige VanZant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-0Record8-5-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'4"
TBDReach65"
115 lbsWeight125 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamGracie Barra Portland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1594
If they lose-12→ 1570
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1663 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michelle Waterson-GomezPaige VanZant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paige VanZant70%
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Paige VanZant a 70% favorite over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michelle Waterson-Gomez's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1582 vs 1574), separated by just 8 points.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Paige VanZant 63%.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Paige VanZant share 1 common opponent: Felice Herrig.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.