Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Rose Namajunas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-0Record14-8-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
TBDReach65"
115 lbsWeight125 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeam303 Training Center
What's at stake
Rose Namajunas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Michelle Waterson-Gomez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-8→ 1574
If they win+11→ 1706
If they lose-21→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1663 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michelle Waterson-GomezRose Namajunas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rose Namajunas80%
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 20%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Rose Namajunas a 80% favorite over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Rose Namajunas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1582, a 113-point edge.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rose Namajunas 50%.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Rose Namajunas share 1 common opponent: Carla Esparza.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.