Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Tecia Pennington
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-0Record15-8-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'1"
TBDReach60″
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Tecia Pennington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Michelle Waterson-Gomez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1597
If they lose-9→ 1573
If they win+13→ 1671
If they lose-19→ 1639
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1663 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michelle Waterson-GomezTecia Pennington
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tecia Pennington79%
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 21%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Tecia Pennington a 79% favorite over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Tecia Pennington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1658 to 1582, a 76-point edge.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tecia Pennington 13%.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Tecia Pennington share 4 common opponents: Marina Rodriguez, Luana Pinheiro, Angela Hill and Carla Esparza.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.