Miguel Baeza vs Punahele Soriano
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record13-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
74"Reach 72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Punahele Soriano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Miguel Baeza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1637
If they win+14→ 1709
If they lose-18→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Miguel BaezaPunahele Soriano
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Punahele Soriano71%
Miguel Baeza 29%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Punahele Soriano a 71% favorite over Miguel Baeza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Punahele Soriano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1651, a 44-point edge.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Miguel Baeza finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Punahele Soriano 69%.
Miguel Baeza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.