Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Graves vs Mounir Lazzez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-2Record11-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
71" Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Nogueira Dubai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mike GravesNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Mounir LazzezNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.25
Sig. strikes / min
7.49
54%
Strike accuracy
55%
1.47
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.42
59%
Strike defense
53%
4.80
Takedown avg.
1.80
0%
Takedown accuracy
57%
67%
Takedown defense
71%
0.40
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mike GravesMounir Lazzez
16501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
3 (27%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (27%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Graves70%
Mounir Lazzez 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Graves a 70% favorite over Mounir Lazzez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Mike Graves finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mounir Lazzez 73%.

Mounir Lazzez carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.