Mike Graves vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-2Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71" Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
If they win+12→ 1670
If they lose-12→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mike GravesTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson55%
Mike Graves 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 55% favorite over Mike Graves in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mike Graves's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1658), separated by just 0 points.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Mike Graves finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Tony Ferguson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.