Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Grundy vs Movsar Evloev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record20-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
72"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Kaobon WiganTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Movsar Evloev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Mike Grundy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mike GrundyNow 1650
If they win+25→ 1675
If they lose-7→ 1643
Movsar EvloevNow 1859
If they win+7→ 1866
If they lose-25→ 1834

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.09
Sig. strikes / min
3.91
45%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.45
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
56%
Strike defense
61%
4.06
Takedown avg.
4.78
28%
Takedown accuracy
5%
50%
Takedown defense
61%
0.37
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Mike GrundyMovsar Evloev
16501700175018001850202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
3 (15%)
8 (67%)
Submission
4 (20%)
3 (25%)
Decision
13 (65%)

Combat Edge model read

Movsar Evloev92%
Mike Grundy 8%Elo baseline: 77%

The Combat Edge model makes Movsar Evloev a 92% favorite over Mike Grundy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).

Movsar Evloev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1859 to 1650, a 209-point edge.

Mike Grundy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Mike Grundy finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Movsar Evloev 35%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.