Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Pierce vs Myktybek Orolbai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-7-0Record16-3-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Sports LabTeamUluu Kyrgyz

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mike PierceNow 1715
If they win+12→ 1727
If they lose-12→ 1703
Myktybek OrolbaiNow 1714
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.62
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
42%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.70
62%
Strike defense
29%
3.08
Takedown avg.
0
43%
Takedown accuracy
45%
71%
Takedown defense
0%
0.25
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mike PierceMyktybek Orolbai
16501700175020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (47%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
1 (6%)
Submission
6 (38%)
8 (47%)
Decision
3 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Myktybek Orolbai85%
Mike Pierce 15%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Myktybek Orolbai a 85% favorite over Mike Pierce in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mike Pierce's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1714), separated by just 1 points.

Mike Pierce enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Pierce finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.