Misha Cirkunov vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-9-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
77"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Misha CirkunovThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Misha Cirkunov60%
Thiago Santos 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Misha Cirkunov a 60% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Santos's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1674), separated by just 4 points.
Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Misha Cirkunov finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Misha Cirkunov and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Johnny Walker and Glover Teixeira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.