Mouhamed Ba vs Ryan Gerena
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Mouhamed Ba and Ryan Gerena within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1588), separated by just 2 points.
Mouhamed Ba enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ryan Gerena enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mouhamed Ba finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Gerena 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record4-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75"Reach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1610
If they lose-24→ 1562
If they win+24→ 1612
If they lose-24→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1535 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mouhamed BaRyan Gerena