Murilo Rua vs Ozzy Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-13-1Record10-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Universidade da LutaTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1636
If they lose-12→ 1612
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1583 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Murilo RuaOzzy Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ozzy Diaz70%
Murilo Rua 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ozzy Diaz a 70% favorite over Murilo Rua in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1624 vs 1627), separated by just 3 points.
Murilo Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Murilo Rua finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Ozzy Diaz 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.