Myktybek Orolbai vs Tofiq Musayev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-3-1Record24-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
74"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Tofiq Musayev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Myktybek Orolbai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1732
If they lose-15→ 1700
If they win+11→ 1749
If they lose-13→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Myktybek OrolbaiTofiq Musayev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tofiq Musayev52%
Myktybek Orolbai 48%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Tofiq Musayev a 52% favorite over Myktybek Orolbai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Tofiq Musayev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1738 to 1715, a 23-point edge.
Tofiq Musayev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Myktybek Orolbai finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Tofiq Musayev 88%.
Myktybek Orolbai carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.