Myktybek Orolbai vs Tofiq Musayev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-2-1Record23-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
74"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Uluu KyrgyzTeamOrion Fight Club
What's at stake
Myktybek Orolbai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tofiq Musayev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1745
If they lose-17→ 1713
If they win+17→ 1723
If they lose-15→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Myktybek OrolbaiTofiq Musayev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Myktybek Orolbai67%
Tofiq Musayev 33%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Myktybek Orolbai a 67% favorite over Tofiq Musayev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Myktybek Orolbai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1706, a 24-point edge.
Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Myktybek Orolbai finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Tofiq Musayev 87%.
Myktybek Orolbai carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.