Combat Edge Intelligence

Nathan Fletcher vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record10-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight136 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamFreelance

What's at stake

Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Nathan Fletcher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nathan FletcherNow 1654
If they win+19→ 1673
If they lose-13→ 1641
Rinya NakamuraNow 1710
If they win+13→ 1723
If they lose-19→ 1691

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.41
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
60%
Strike accuracy
55%
2.16
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.38
58%
Strike defense
67%
3.37
Takedown avg.
3.72
31%
Takedown accuracy
90%
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0.67
Submission avg.
1.65

Trajectory

Nathan FletcherRinya Nakamura
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
7 (64%)
Submission
1 (10%)
2 (18%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rinya Nakamura51%
Nathan Fletcher 49%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 51% favorite over Nathan Fletcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1654, a 56-point edge.

Nathan Fletcher enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Nathan Fletcher finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Nathan Fletcher carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.