Nik Lentz vs Thiago Tavares
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-12-2Record24-11-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReach68,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Tavares
What's at stake
Nik Lentz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1681
If they lose-13→ 1657
If they win+13→ 1658
If they lose-11→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nik LentzThiago Tavares
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nik Lentz55%
Thiago Tavares 45%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Nik Lentz a 55% favorite over Thiago Tavares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Nik Lentz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1645, a 25-point edge.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nik Lentz finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Tavares 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.