Nikita Krylov vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-12-0Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'4"
77"Reach76"
215 lbsWeight185 lbs
Raty Team· 1671 avg Elo · 14 ratedTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Nikita Krylov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1701
If they lose-13→ 1677
If they win+13→ 1676
If they lose-11→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nikita KrylovPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nikita Krylov56%
Paul Craig 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Nikita Krylov a 56% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Nikita Krylov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1690 to 1663, a 27-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Nikita Krylov finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Nikita Krylov and Paul Craig share 3 common opponents: Modestas Bukauskas, Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.