Niko Ceraglia vs Patrik Šebek
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Niko Ceraglia52%
Patrik Šebek 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Niko Ceraglia a 52% favorite over Patrik Šebek in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1564), separated by just 0 points.
Niko Ceraglia finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Patrik Šebek 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record4-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 ratedTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-24→ 1540
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-24→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1487 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Niko CeragliaPatrik Šebek