Nikolay Aleksakhin vs Vicente Luque
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque62%
Nikolay Aleksakhin 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 62% favorite over Nikolay Aleksakhin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1708), separated by just 3 points.
Nikolay Aleksakhin finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Vicente Luque carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
26-11-0Record24-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach75″
172 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alexander Nevsky (Stary Oskol)TeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1717
If they lose-12→ 1693
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-12→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nikolay AleksakhinVicente Luque