Combat Edge Intelligence

Nurullo Aliev vs Rafael Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-0-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
72"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kaizen MMATeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai

What's at stake

Nurullo Aliev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nurullo AlievNow 1715
If they win+11→ 1726
If they lose-21→ 1694
Rafael AlvesNow 1613
If they win+21→ 1634
If they lose-11→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.72
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
45%
Strike accuracy
49%
1.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.30
58%
Strike defense
58%
2.12
Takedown avg.
0.29
19%
Takedown accuracy
25%
80%
Takedown defense
44%
0.30
Submission avg.
1.46

Trajectory

Nurullo AlievRafael Alves
1600165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
7 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (43%)
9 (82%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Nurullo Aliev84%
Rafael Alves 16%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Nurullo Aliev a 84% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Nurullo Aliev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1613, a 102-point edge.

Nurullo Aliev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Nurullo Aliev finishes 18% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.

Nurullo Aliev carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.