Combat Edge Intelligence

Oleg Popov vs Sergei Pavlovich

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-2-0Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
75.5"Reach84"
250 lbsWeight260 lbs
FedorTeam· 1771 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamEagles MMA· 1812 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Oleg PopovNow 1802
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790
Sergei PavlovichNow 1809
If they win+16→ 1825
If they lose-16→ 1793

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
4.43
Not available
Strike accuracy
44%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.62
Not available
Strike defense
56%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0.48
Not available
Takedown accuracy
25%
Not available
Takedown defense
75%
Not available
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Oleg PopovSergei Pavlovich
17501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (39%)
KO/TKO
16 (76%)
3 (13%)
Submission
0 (0%)
11 (48%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Sergei Pavlovich73%
Oleg Popov 27%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 73% favorite over Oleg Popov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1802 vs 1809), separated by just 7 points.

Oleg Popov enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Oleg Popov finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.

Sergei Pavlovich carries a 9-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.