Ozzy Diaz vs Phil Hawes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record12-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height5'11"
79"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1678 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ozzy DiazPhil Hawes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ozzy Diaz66%
Phil Hawes 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ozzy Diaz a 66% favorite over Phil Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1623), separated by just 4 points.
Phil Hawes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ozzy Diaz finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Phil Hawes 83%.
Ozzy Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.