Ozzy Diaz vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height5'11"
79"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
California Mixed Martial ArtsTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ozzy DiazWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ozzy Diaz60%
Warlley Alves 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ozzy Diaz a 60% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1625), separated by just 2 points.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ozzy Diaz finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Ozzy Diaz carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.