Paige VanZant vs Rose Namajunas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-5-0Record14-8-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'5"
65"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeam303 Training Center
What's at stake
Rose Namajunas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Paige VanZant carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1595
If they lose-11→ 1563
If they win+11→ 1706
If they lose-21→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paige VanZantRose Namajunas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rose Namajunas72%
Paige VanZant 28%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Rose Namajunas a 72% favorite over Paige VanZant in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Rose Namajunas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1574, a 121-point edge.
Paige VanZant finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Rose Namajunas 50%.
Paige VanZant and Rose Namajunas share 1 common opponent: Amanda Ribas.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.