Paul Craig vs Volkan Oezdemir
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-1Record21-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
76"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight206 lbs
Scottish Hit SquadTeamFight Move Academy
What's at stake
Volkan Oezdemir is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1676
If they lose-10→ 1652
If they win+13→ 1732
If they lose-19→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul CraigVolkan Oezdemir
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Volkan Oezdemir72%
Paul Craig 28%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Volkan Oezdemir a 72% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Volkan Oezdemir holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1662, a 57-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Paul Craig finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Volkan Oezdemir 76%.
Paul Craig and Volkan Oezdemir share 2 common opponents: Johnny Walker and Nikita Krylov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.